Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
103 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
103 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INCREASES MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...
This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Northwest Arkansas and Adjacent Portions of Eastern Oklahoma.
ONSET...After 4 PM.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Significant.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...After 4 PM.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...East-Central Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Northwest Arkansas and Adjacent Portions of Eastern Oklahoma.
ONSET...After 4 PM.
DANGEROUS HEAT.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.
DISCUSSION...
The threat for severe thunderstorms is expected to increase
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas beginning after 4
PM and continue into the evening hours, as a potent upper level
storm system moves through the Central Plains. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along a cold front stretched across the area,
with the greatest coverage likely to be closer to the upper level
support in northwest Arkansas and adjacent portions of northeast
and east central Oklahoma. Instability and shear parameters will
support potential for severe weather, including large hail to the
size of tennis balls, wind gusts near 70 mph and a few tornadoes.
In addition, locally heavy rain could occur, leading to localized
flooding of low-lying and flood prone areas, especially in
northwest Arkansas. A Flood Watch is in effect through midnight
for portions of northwest Arkansas. Thunderstorms should shift
east of the area by midnight.
Dangerous heat and humidity are possible across parts of southeast
Oklahoma. Expect heat index values from 105 to 108 this afternoon
and into early evening, with the highest potential near the Red
River.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY through MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
After a brief dry period Thursday into Thursday evening, another
nighttime thunderstorm complex is expected to move into parts of
the area early Friday morning. The upper level flow pattern
supports additional overnight and morning thunderstorms through at
least the weekend, focused across northeast Oklahoma and into
northwest Arkansas. Depending on how these thunderstorms and
residual cloud cover affect daytime temperatures, heat index
values may exceed 105 degrees in some spots, and additional heat
advisories may be required through the weekend and into next week.
weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.